The Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, has given an insight into both the worst-case and best-case scenario of coronavirus infection in Lagos.

According to him, the number of infections could rise to as high as 39,000 in the worst-case scenario and as low as 13,000 in the best-case scenario.

Both outcomes are dependent on how effectively Lagosians practice social distancing.

“Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos, but if everyone practices good social distancing, the figure will be limited to 13,000,” Professor Akin Abayomi said earlier today while briefing pressmen.

He also stated that the curve could bend in favour of the state a little further if the state employs ‘active contact tracing’.

Also, he compared the state to Italy and Spain, saying the number of cases is considerably low compared to what both countries recorded 3 weeks after their index case.

“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasize to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practice social distancing and other preventive measures,” he continued.

“Looking at the same time frame from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos State is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.

“So, at weeks two and three of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases.

“So, we are doing something right in the state,” He added